HBM Memory Supercycle Pair-Trade Thesis Builder

Turns the 2026 HBM4 memory supercycle into a defensible long/short or pair-trade thesis across SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung, and SanDisk — reconciles hyperscaler AI capex ($700B+) against HBM capacity commitments (Nvidia–SK Group $500B, 10-customer long-term deals), models gross-margin bifurcation (Hynix 91% vs Micron 50–55%), stress-tests HBM4 vs HBM3E product-cycle timing, screens for supercycle-top signals (order-book softening, capex over-commit, spot-DRAM inflection), and produces a written thesis with position sizing, hedge legs, entry/exit triggers, and an explicit invalidation checklist